Industry predictions for 2026: AI as an acquisition tool and further tax hikes loom
Better Collective co-CEO Jesper Søgaard and Paf boss Christer Fahlstedt share their thoughts on key trends to watch out for next year
Jesper Søgaard, Better Collective co-CEO
Prediction markets will spark a marketing boom as new players race for first-mover mindshare
2026 will be the year prediction markets truly break through. As regulation becomes clearer and more capital flows into the space, several operators will launch or scale at the same time, triggering a surge in marketing competition not seen in sports betting for years.
This is a new category with limited brand loyalty and few established habits. The first 12 to 18 months will be about moving fast and claiming mindshare. We will see an accelerated replay of the early DFS and online sports betting years: aggressive user offers, high-tempo paid media and increased investment in creators and communities that are young, digital-first and culturally driven.
Because prediction markets are inherently social, relying on network effects and shared expectations, early movers have a clear advantage. The brands that successfully activate community participation will pull ahead quickly. That advantage will not last forever. As the market matures, economics will tighten and competition will become more disciplined.
In 2026, prediction market brands and platforms will be hard to miss. They will dominate headlines, watchlists and awareness campaigns. What begins as a race for users will quickly evolve into a battle for trust. The winners will be those that combine strong products with transparency and a responsible user experience from the very start.
AI will push the industry from customer acquisition at-scale to retention that actually matters
For a long time, success in this industry has been about how efficiently you could turn a click into a first-time depositor. In 2026, that mindset will change. AI-powered fan assistants are making retention a real economic driver by enabling continuous and personalised fan engagement.
Sports fans will no longer browse for insights or betting opportunities. They will expect them to be delivered in the right moment, in the right format, tailored to how they follow and consume sports. Early signals already suggest that AI assistants can meaningfully improve session depth, repeat usage and strengthen conversion by simplifying what has historically been complex. Product experiences like our AI-powered Playbook solution will show that the real value is in becoming part of the user’s weekly sports ritual: analysing odds and matches, suggesting relevant picks and then connecting seamlessly to sportsbooks.
As a result, operators will increasingly prioritise media and affiliate partners that go beyond acquisition, supporting long-term engagement through personalised content and intelligent product experiences. The brands that master fan retention through AI will own the next era of sustainable growth.
Authentic talent-led content will matter more than ever
As AI-generated content scales at speed, audiences will become far more selective about what they trust, follow and spend time with. The result is simple: authenticity will win.
We are already seeing this play out, but next year it will accelerate. Fans will move towards real people with real opinions, deep expertise and a clear point of view. Especially in sports, video will sit at the centre of this shift. Faces, voices and personalities create connection in a way no generic content ever can.
Scale alone will no longer be enough. The winners will be those that can combine strong editorial standards with distinctive on-screen talent and formats that feel native to how fans actually consume content. Short-form, live reactions and activations and community driven dialogue will matter more than polished and anonymous output.
For partners and advertisers, this opens up more meaningful engagement. Talent-led media places brands in trusted, high attention environments where audiences are already deeply engaged. In an AI-heavy content world, authenticity will become a strong competitive advantage.
Christer Fahlstedt, Paf CEO
The era of ever-increasing online gambling taxes
Governments will continue raising online gambling taxes, treating the industry as an easy source of revenue. What were once small adjustments have become a structural trend, with higher taxes applied without corresponding improvements in regulation or channelisation.
As margins shrink, responsible operators – those most committed to sustainable gaming – feel the pressure first. The result is a shift in focus from expansion to efficiency: tighter cost control, portfolio reassessment and greater operational resilience.
This wave of rising taxation will eventually force a broader debate about the long-term viability of regulated markets and whether policymakers can continue to raise taxes without weakening the very frameworks they rely on.
Governments finally act against the black and grey market
With tax rates climbing, 2026 is likely to be the year policymakers finally confront the scale of black- and grey-market gambling.
High taxation has made the imbalance obvious: fully compliant operators carry significant regulatory and tax burdens, while unlicensed actors operate freely.
To protect both revenue and regulatory credibility, governments will intensify enforcement – improving payment blocking, tightening affiliate and supplier accountability and coordinating cross-border actions.
This shift won’t be driven by consumer protection but by the realisation that illegal markets erode taxation and undermine national frameworks. Finally, it is seen as something that needs to be “fixed” not just ignored.
AI agents move from buzzword to necessity in 2026
In 2026, AI agents will move from hype to genuine necessity for operators navigating increasingly challenging market conditions. The companies that succeed will be those that adopt AI not as a standalone tool but as a core part of how they operate, make decisions and serve customers.
AI will enable faster adaptation, greater efficiency and more resilient organisations – advantages that become critical as regulatory and fiscal pressures intensify.
The real competitive divide will form between businesses that redesign processes to fully harness AI and those that merely experiment at the margins. In a tougher landscape, the ability to scale intelligent automation will shift from a ‘nice-to-have’ to a prerequisite for remaining competitive and sustainable.