Betting big on Rugby World Cup 2023

EGR: How much growth have we seen between the eve of this year’s Rugby World Cup and the previous edition?

Alex Amon (AA): There’s a common misconception within the betting industry that rugby is ‘not a betting sport’. However, the growth in betting activity across its major competitions over the past four years challenges this notion. Since South Africa were crowned world champions in 2019, we’ve seen a three-fold increase in the number of betting tickets accepted on behalf of our bookmaker clients through Managed Trading Services (MTS). Popular tournaments in the 2022/23 season, such as the English Premiership, United Rugby Championship and the Six Nations, achieved year-on-year turnover increases of 30%, 57% and 50%, respectively, emphasising the importance of rugby content to operators in today’s market.

EGR: What type of betting markets are bettors engaging with for rugby compared to football?

AA: Like any sport, rugby has its core markets which drive an infinite number of derivative long-tail markets. Where rugby is trying to compete with football is in the reduction of downtime for in-play events to keep bettors engaged. With the rules of the game changing and an ever-increasing review of tries and tackles by Television Match Official (TMO), it has never been more difficult for rugby traders to improve uptime. Our traders focus on keeping odds live for as long as possible and not removing markets. It’s not a great user experience if all the odds disappear so we look to maximise uptime to drive as much turnover as possible for operators. This is the biggest challenge rugby traders face at the moment. World Rugby seemingly recognises the need to engage their fans more deeply. The World Cup’s introduction of time restrictions on certain actions like goal kicks, set pieces and rucks are set to improve the pace and flow of the game. This is a fan-centric development, and the reduction in downtime in this regard provides more opportunities for operators to engage with their customers over the course of a match.

EGR: What’s the split between pre-match and in-play betting in rugby?

AA: Based on the activity of our bookmaker clients, we tend to see 40% of rugby bets placed on pre-match markets while 60% of rugby betting activity takes place in-play. We’re fully expecting in-play betting to be the main driver of engagement for operators during the World Cup. 

Live sport and in-play betting are intrinsically linked. Bettors react to the action as it happens on the field of play. This heightens the excitement and enhances the overall sporting experience.

EGR: What growth opportunities does this year’s tournament provide for operators?

AA: There’s plenty of reasons for operators to be excited about the Rugby World Cup and the growth opportunities it creates. The tournament starts during football’s international break, so the volume of football betting content will be significantly reduced. As a result, operators will be seeking alternative content to engage their customers. For operators in Europe, matches are televised throughout the day on free-to-air channels, which drives greater levels of engagement among bettors.

And, if the Tournament Winner market and pre-tournament results are anything to go by, operators and punters are in for one of the most closely contested competitions in recent history. The top four teams in the world rankings now are all on the same side of the draw, as this was done quite some time ago when the rankings were all very different. This sets the scene for some heavyweight battles in the pool stages, plus it means two of the favourite teams will be knocked out at the quarter finals. Lower-ranked teams are also in the ascendency, including Argentina and Fiji that have both beaten former favourite teams recently. The unpredictable nature of these matches lends itself to in-play betting, which is where we see the growth opportunity for sportsbooks. The mouth-watering opening match between hosts France and New Zealand is the perfect gift for operators; with turnover for this match alone likely to equal that of the final at the end of October.

EGR: Are less popular sports such as rugby more reliant on these showpiece tournaments to drive acquisition and retention than tier-one sports?

AA: In terms of rugby, the data shows a steady increase in betting activity over the last four years. So, while the 2019 tournament may have been an acquisition driver in the first instance, the sport has continued to engage bettors since then.

That growth reflects significant changes within the rugby landscape over the last few years. Today, a greater number of competitions are broadcast on terrestrial TV. In the UK, Premiership Rugby, the Heineken Champions Cup and the Six Nations are all available on ITV, allowing operators to advertise during the ad breaks of those matches and engage with bettors. ITV is showing all Rugby World Cup matches across their channels, providing operators with the opportunity to reach a broad and highly engaged audience. 

We know that operators use big tournaments like the Rugby World Cup to support their acquisition strategies, but the real source of engagement and revenue driver for operators is to deliver a comprehensive rugby offering to ensure fans are catered for and therefore retained.

EGR: Is the rugby trading talent pool smaller than football or US sports, and if so, how do you combat that?

AA: Yes, absolutely. I spent nine years working as a rugby trader so I know just how hard it can be to identify, train and nurture rugby traders. I was lucky enough to learn from some of the best in the business – first as a pre-match odds compiler and then as an in-play rugby trader. As demand for operators to offer more rugby content increases, it’s no surprise that the ‘old school’ approach to trading the sport means that the rugby traders of today take an increasingly tech-driven approach to the job.

The depth of AI-driven trading tools and quantitative models available to our rugby traders at Sportradar today has made their job much easier compared to when I began my career. Still, while sports such as soccer can sometimes trade autonomously, rugby, along with a number of other sports, requires a degree of situational-based sports knowledge that tools and models can’t provide.

EGR: How much betting do you expect to register on this year’s tournament in terms of stakes, bets and actives?

AA: Generally speaking, in a Rugby World Cup year, operators would expect to see up to 50% of their turnover for that sport delivered against the tournament. From Sportradar’s perspective, we’re forecasting a 165% increase in the number of betting tickets that we process through MTS, compared to the tournament in 2019.  

Given how open this year’s competition is, we’re expecting to surpass these figures. The balance of the draw gives one of the smaller rugby nations the opportunity to progress to quarter finals. We could see one of these teams go deep into the competition, encouraging punters to support the underdog.

Regardless of who wins, there’s plenty of action to enjoy along the way.