Geckos Games: The future of live sports engagement
In this article, brought to you by Geckos Games, gaming analyst Noa Aviran discusses how short-window predictions can help sportsbooks improve retention
With customer acquisition costs climbing and traditional live betting retention reaching a plateau, the strategic challenge for sportsbooks during major sporting events is no longer acquisition – it is long-term retention
The ongoing challenge is no longer simply attracting players to live sports, but keeping them continuously engaged throughout the match. While live betting provides moments of interaction, there are still long periods where fans have little reason to actively participate, leaving engagement gaps throughout the live experience.
To bridge this gap, operators are increasingly exploring real-time engagement mechanics that use live match data to create short, interactive experiences. Rather than relying solely on traditional betting activity, these experiences provide fans with additional opportunities to engage while the action is still unfolding.
The five-minute hook
At the centre of this shift is the concept of short-window predictions. Rather than asking users to commit to full-match outcomes, these mechanics allow fans to predict short-term momentum shifts during live play – such as which team holds the upper hand over a specific five-minute window.
Unlike prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket, these mechanics rely on real-time official match data provided by Opta rather than market pricing or user-to-user positions. As events unfold on the pitch, every corner, attack, and card contributes to the live balance of play, providing users with immediate visual feedback and an iGaming-style level of excitement while transforming passive match viewing into a more active and engaging experience.
One reason these mechanics are so effective is that they reduce commitment while increasing participation. Instead of asking users to predict the outcome of an entire match, they encourage quick decisions that naturally follow the rhythm of live sport, creating more opportunities for interaction throughout the event. Unlike many other iGaming mechanics, users clearly understand what drives their prediction towards a win or a loss.
One example of this approach was ‘Momentum’, Geckos Games’ live prediction experience on THRILLZZ Free Social Sportsbook during the World Cup.
What the data shows: Proof from the World Cup
Momentum’s deployment during the World Cup delivered strong engagement results. Active users spent 92% more time in the app, recorded 58% more daily sessions, and spent 2.4x longer in the app than non-participating users. Engagement also translated into stronger commercial activity, with participating users averaging 2.5x higher daily wagers.
Perhaps most importantly, the experience encouraged repeat participation, with more than 50% of users making a second prediction within the same session – demonstrating how short, real-time prediction windows can naturally sustain engagement throughout a live sporting event.
Why this changes the live sports experience
For years, sportsbooks have focused on a single defining moment: placing a bet before waiting for the outcome. While live betting introduced more opportunities to interact during a match, much of the experience still revolves around isolated decisions followed by periods of waiting.
Real-time prediction mechanics introduce a different engagement model. Instead of concentrating excitement around one or two moments, they create a continuous cycle of anticipation and re-engagement that repeats every few minutes. Every attack, corner or foul has the potential to influence the current prediction window, giving fans a reason to stay emotionally invested throughout the match.
For operators, this extends the sportsbook journey rather than replacing it. Short prediction windows keep players engaged during moments when attention typically fades, creating more opportunities for meaningful interaction without disrupting the live viewing experience.
Looking ahead
As sports audiences increasingly expect more interactive digital experiences, engagement is becoming just as important as betting itself. Fans no longer want to simply watch the action unfold – they want to participate in it.
As real-time data becomes faster and interactive formats continue to evolve, Momentum’s next evolution will bring larger jackpots, higher payouts, shorter prediction intervals, and new real-time engagement mechanics that create even more opportunities for fans to interact with live sport.
The next generation of live sports engagement will be defined not by offering more betting markets, but by creating more frequent, rewarding moments that keep fans emotionally connected from kick-off to the final whistle.
About the company
Geckos Games is an AI-native R&D gaming company focused on developing proprietary sports prediction and social gaming products that make watching sports more interactive, engaging, and fun. Geckos Games is backed by Secret Chord Ventures and Konvoy Ventures.