EKG’s base case projection for World Cup betting handle tops $2.8bn
Boutique analyst firm estimates $900m to $1bn was bet in the US on the 2022 edition in Qatar, with upcoming tournament to include 104 games versus 64 four years ago
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) has said its base case scenario for handle on the 2026 World Cup in the US is $2.82bn, significantly surpassing estimations for betting volumes on the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
The $2.82bn figure comes with “wide error bars,” the analyst company noted, due largely to how far the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) progresses in the six week-long tournament starting on June 11.
EKG’s base case assumes the USMNT will advance from the group stage before either exiting in the Round of 32 or the Round of 16. The US is in Group D alongside Paraguay, Australia, and Türkiye.
Based on channel checks, EKG believes there was between $900m and $1bn wagered on the 2022 World Cup with US bookmakers, so the 2026 projection would represent around a 3x increase in handle.
A “high case scenario” would be $4.33bn, or 2.4% of total projected 2026 handle across all US sports betting, if the USMNT manages an unexpected deep run into the knockout stages.
EKG also thinks that given their “scale, product quality, and brand awareness” FanDuel and DraftKings should capture around 70% of the base case handle, implying roughly $1.02bn for DraftKings and $945m for FanDuel.
The firm expects Fanatics Sportsbook and Hard Rock Bet to especially benefit from the World Cup, with the former having a “top-tier product” and a “differentiated, merchandize-driven engagement strategy that may resonate particularly well around a tentpole event like the World Cup (eg USMNT jersey promotions).”
Meanwhile, Hard Rock Bet, which is the de facto monopoly operator in Florida, benefits from local market exposure seeing as Miami hosts seven matches, including knockout fixtures.
EKG forecasts that together, Fanatics Sportsbook and Hard Rock Bet will capture approximately 14% combined handle share, equivalent to $396m in the base case scenario.
The 2026 tournament benefits from a “materially strong setup,” the firm noted, including an expanded slate of 104 games versus 64 in previous World Cups.
This is the first time the competition will feature 48 teams, up from 32 previously.
There are also a greater number of US states with legal sports betting, with 40 US jurisdictions today taking bets legally. A total of 32 states plus DC have online sports betting.
EGK also pointed to a “more mature and competitive operator ecosystem, a more favorable summer sports calendar, and, most importantly, a tournament hosted on home soil.”
Indeed, the fact a tournament is hosted in the US, Canada, and Mexico is being played on the same timezones as the US is expected to have a big impact on interest and betting volumes.
Last month, DraftKings co-founder and CEO Jason Robins told investors and analysts that the World Cup will provide a major boost to user acquisition, though he was more bearish on what will be delivered from a financial standpoint.
“I have very high expectations for the World Cup when it comes to customer acquisition and engagement. I’m not as sure it’ll be a huge revenue opportunity,” he said.
“I’m guessing the amount wagered on some won’t be quite as high as maybe you’ll see in NFL or NBA.
“I think it’ll be absolutely tremendous for customer acquisition, starting with these prediction states. About half of the US, including large states like California, Texas, and Florida, we have never had a major marketing event like this in those states. We’re going to really go for it. If the numbers are not supporting that, we will back off.”
The Boston-based firm also believes its Spanish-language app could be an ace up its sleeve given the interest in soccer among the US’ Hispanic community.
In other news, Fanatics Markets – the prediction markets product from Fanatics Betting and Gaming – has announced the launch of an interactive 2026 World Cup “hub experience” in collaboration with ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the tournament.
The co-branded Fanatics Markets and ADI Predictstreet World Cup Hub offers fans expanded global football prediction markets as well as news on the tournament, official player data, and in-app content.
It is available to fans in 23 US states and four territories.